Soccer specialists provide you with betting suggestions, the media publishes the latest news concerning the opponent teams and their key gamers, bookmakers assist hundreds of betting methods. Nonetheless, when you finally place your huge wager on a certain favorite, this is the time to start praying. Sadly, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we minimize our betting losses? The only solution to do it is by utilizing cash management strategies. This article summarizes the strategies and strategies of betting money management and gives a statistical comparability of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.
The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first don't require any prior data, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.
Earlier than presenting the efficiency analysis, a short description of the above-talked about strategies is important:
-- Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the beginning stack after a win. This strategy is the most well-liked today and promises positive profits, however requires intensive money investments.
-- Row of numbers means planning a series of fixed profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a approach that may enable him to make the deliberate profit. In case he loses, he ought to improve the following stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.
-- Kelly criterion: mathematically confirmed to be one of the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires figuring out the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the scale of your funds and agen bola terpercaya
according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When likelihood and odds are high, a high stack will probably be positioned and vice versa.
Data and Strategies
In order to evaluate the efficiency of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the highest European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favourite with minimal betting odds. One can simply estimate the likelihood of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.
The betting odds and results are taken from the 4 European top leagues taking part in in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
-- The outcomes show that Kelly criterion is one of the best cash management strategy of the three with a mean profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).
-- The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).
-- The least revenueable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -eight% (Martingale).